Framework teórico sobre uma forma de gerenciamento do estado, evidências quantitativas e o contexto brasileiro

Abstract

The objective was to develop a theoretical framework on a form of State management, covering variables and characteristics relevant to the economic and social development of contemporary society, highlighting and quantitatively reinforcing the qualifying attributes of the State synthesized in the framework and associating it with the reality of Brazil . A mixed methods approach of the exploratory sequential type (qualitative - quantitative) was used. Initially, through bibliographical research, relevant characteristics of the formation of the modern State and classic state models were studied: liberal and social welfare, including the concepts of Bresser-Pereira (2005) and Esping-Andersen (1991). Based on the characteristics highlighted, in a second phase of bibliographical research, studies were identified that related development to the defined variables. Also, representative indicators were designated for each of the variables. Articulating and synthesizing characteristics of State models, variables and indicators; The Theoretical Framework was founded and presented, containing 15 variables categorized into five dimensions. In the quantitative phase of the work, a database of indicators representing the 15 variables of the framework was formed, with a sample of 102 countries. Subsequently, unsupervised learning (k-means) was used to form clusters based on the level of development of the countries, which were categorized as follows: 34 “developed”, 24 “developing” and 44 “underdeveloped”. From these results, it was found that the variables economic freedom, governance, democracy, electronic government, environment, science and technology, public spending, taxes and social investment showed a strong positive correlation with economic and social progress. The result of cluster formation was used in two-dimensional analyzes between the level of development defined by the Human Develoment Index (HDI) and each of the 15 variables. It was seen that the group of developed countries promotes economic and civil freedoms; promoter of democracy, governance, science and technology, electronic government and peace (internal and external) and protector of the sustainable environment. It also taxes, spends and invests more in social policies, and has a lower concentration of income. Cluster formation using the k-means method with principal components demonstrated that the two most relevant attributes of the framework clearly distinguish the level of development of nations. Additionally, supervised learning (decision tree) was used to identify the most relevant framework variables to classify nations from a development perspective. On this occasion, the following were identified: electronic government, governance, social investment and public debt. For the Brazilian State, this result brings a good perspective for the level of Brazilian development. Since the last decade, the country has made several moves to promote governance and promote electronic government. Brazil presented a high approximation to the cluster of developed countries in five variables (social investment, electronic government, public spending, taxes and democracy) and obtained a medium or low approximation in nine (economic freedom, civil freedom, peace, science and technology, distribution of income, environment, work and employment, governance and price stability). An overview of the Brazilian context was prepared, containing actions and information about the nine attributes that presented medium or low approximation. Using this analysis and the formation of clusters using K-means, a brainstorming session was created to bring insights into action plans and public policies capable of improving the effectiveness of state functions associated with the nine variables of low and medium approximation. For theory, this scientific work provides a Theoretical Framework on a Form of State Management and a formation of clusters of national States from different development perspectives, based on the basis of the framework. In practical and social terms, formulate public policies aligned with the practices and models established by developed countries, directing public resources and objectives in favor of socioeconomic progress, according to the situation and their particular reality.