Gestão de Pessoas na Administração Federal: Desafios, Oportunidades e Estratégias à Luz da Curva de Laffer

Abstract

The growing attrition of qualified public servants poses a major challenge to the sustainability of the Brazilian Public Administration, particularly within Federal Educational Institutions (IFEs), where Administrative Technical Staff in Education (TAEs) play a strategic role in maintaining administrative and academic processes. In this context, this research aimed to analyze the applicability of the Laffer Curve as a heuristic model for understanding the relationship between various dimensions of investment in people management and the retention of Administrative Technical Staff in Education. It combined national-level evidence with a pilot study at the Federal University of Triângulo Mineiro and sought to develop a Technical and Technological Product (PTT) to support evidence-based managerial decision-making. This is an applied study with a predominantly quantitative approach and a descriptive-explanatory design, grounded in document analysis and secondary data from the Personnel Statistics Dashboard (PEP)—covering the 2015–2024 period—complemented by institutional data used to demonstrate the developed product. The analysis employed descriptive statistics and quadratic regression modeling to represent the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between people management investments and staff retention, using the Laffer Curve as an analytical framework adapted to the public administration context. The results revealed significant changes in voluntary turnover rates over the historical series, highlighting an initial period of stability, an atypical decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp rise in attrition between 2021 and 2022, and a partial reduction in the indicator following the 2023 salary adjustment. The findings were consistent with the hypothesis that professional valuation policies can influence staff retention, while also underscoring the multifactorial nature of this phenomenon, which encompasses remuneration, career opportunities, and organizational conditions. As a key applied contribution, a predictive calculator for allocative efficiency was developed to assist public managers in simulating investment scenarios regarding people management; this tool enables the estimation of potential impacts on civil servant retention and supports institutional planning. The study concludes that the use of quantitative models in people management enhances the analytical capacity of public administration, fostering decisions that are transparent, evidence-based, and oriented toward creating public value. Although the results are specific to the context analyzed, the proposed methodology offers potential for replication across other career paths and public institutions, representing both a theoretical and applied contribution to strengthening strategic people management in the public sector.